For What It's Worth

Here, for what they're worth, are my election predictions and why:

Conservative - 35%, 161 seats

Liberal - 30%, 108

NDP - 19%, 30

Bloc Quebecois - 6%, 36

Green - 8%, 1

People's Party - 2%, 1

Independent - Trace element, 1 (Jody Wilson-Raybould, BC)

Maritimes - 10 C; 22 L

Quebec - 15 C; 25 L; 1 NDP; 36 BQ; 1 PPC (Bernier)

Ontario - 55 C; 54 L; 12 NDP

West/Prairies - 59 C; 1 L; 2 NDP

British Columbia - 22 C; 5 L; 13 NDP; 1 Green (May); 1 IND (Raybould)

Territories - 1 L; 2 NDP

What is particularly interesting is that I am only relying on the margin of error so called of most polls. Most of them show that it is perfectly possible that the Tories will have 35% not 32 and the Liberals go down to 29 but I give them 30, instead. Further, even if you gave ALL of the new BQ seats in PQ to the L, which is quite generous obviously, they still would lose clearly to the Tories. Essentially a tie in Ontario is plausible when you realize how exaggerated a provincial poll can be in estimating Liberal strength due to the GTA. The Tories are bound to get at least a third of the Maritimes seats (what goes up... and two coat of paint voters). I give them technically less than that. 

In the West, the people are angry and there is only one place to put that anger - the nearest candidate with blue (NOT purple!) signs. The Tories have easily swept this region before, they can do it again with a Leader from the Region with this new western rage. They still want in and a government that owes their @#$ to them is the best way to undo the damage done to them. Oh, and, at some point, as in the rest of Canada, all those Provincial Tory victories (the latest just last month in Manitoba) count for something.

IN BC, yes, you need to be a nuclear physicist to correctly guess this. I have not taken Science since Grade 9 but I'll give it a try. Many people in the Interior in particular and some of the suburbs are not thrilled with their NDP/Green government's climate fanaticism and the Liberals' refusal to intervene to stop an Albertan economic disaster turning into a BC disaster. After all, it never made any sense - BC v. ALTA? Really? Between the notorious splits that occur in many mainland seats and residual embarrassment over the antics of a PM many here viewed as a favourite son, there it is - a very, very strong Tory Minority that will essentially rely on no one (much as Harper 2006-2011 did).

As for Quebec, the 2011 figures do have a cautionary tale for me. The BQ got 6% of the vote then and still only got FOUR seats. But, even if the BQ wave thankfully does not materialize, if say a third of the new BQ seats (almost all outside of Red Montreal Island) I'm predicting each go to the Tories, Liberals and NDP/Green/PPC, the Tories would get a Majority! The 2011 figures also make my argument further for me. In that year, the NDP won 103 seats with only 30% of the vote. Also in 2011, the Tories won a majority government of 166 seats (in a House of Commons that was 10% smaller at the time) with just under 40% of the vote.

I am predicting that the Tories win the 2011 equivalent of a minority of 145 seats with only about 4% less of the vote. I am predicting the Liberals will win almost exactly the same 2011 delegation as the NDP did with the same vote %. Finally,  a seemingly big problem with my predictions is the NDP would lose about a third of their seats in the last election but win the same % of the votes. This is almost entirely due to the young leadership of Singh, an historically inefficient distribution of the NDP vote and, above all, their collapse in PQ. Our electoral system, as the PR nuts will tell you as well as poor Ms. May, can be and, on my prediction, will be cruel again.

Take the "Shy Tory Voter" effect (well proven and as recently as this year in Manitoba and Alberta and last year in Ontario and Quebec), take a teaspoon of the PPC not making an impact, throw in a big cup of "What do you mean the Economy is 'good'!",add in the youth vote turnout collapse mainly due to the PM's missteps, and throw in a dash of Liberal complacency (yes, I said complacency - why follow up a week of the usual Liberal dire desperate warnings about not "wasting" your vote on the Leftwing parties and THEN spread it about your willing accomplices in the Press and the Polling firms that you are winning?) leading to unexpectedly low Liberal turnout and my theory can make eminent sense. Oh and don't count out, as I refuse on principle to do so, a whole pint of the People deciding the Rule of Law means something to them, after all. It all should add up to an historic rejection of a one term majority government (the first since 1935). Or...so I hope!

Stay tuned!