Monday, April 6, 2020

Modelling COVID

It seems to me that the one thing missing in most of those projections as to COVID deaths is a time frame. Once the Headline number of deaths is claimed, no one tells us over what period. For example, it took almost a year for 18,000 to die from Swine Flu. How long will it take for COVID to kill 240,000? Well, on past performance, probably, well...a long time. Even if you believe 12,000 will die every month (and 10,000 have died in the past 6 weeks at least), then it will take almost 2 years to kill 240,000 Americans. But, if you assume that this will mostly be over by July, then about 70,000 would have to die every month. Neither scenario seems plausible on its face with hot spots elsewhere dying down amid maybe 80,000 deaths worldwide. Again, whether it's Ontario or the US, it's time to explain where they're getting these less than model "models" from.

Oh and BTW, the total death toll from the common flu last year in the US was 34,000 with a similar number coming this year. The "Deadly" Coronavirus still trails both it and Swine flu in mortality and infection (33 million common, 60 million swine) with 335,000. All this is boring I am sure to our News mavens but, as the great man once said,"That, too, is reality".
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John M. Farant

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