Drill Down

As I have learned from Doug Ford, Max Bernier and Andrew Scheer, it is not enough that a candidate for leadership be resume'd (Scheer), "look like a real man" (Ford) or have the right ideological stuff (Bernier). All of these qualities are good in a Leader, especially, the ideas, the policies, for that is why I am in politics. However, having one or even two of these qualities is not enough. 

Scheer had an impressive background for his age and some good instincts on policy. But he never had the connection you need with real people and, in the end, he was afraid of following what were his natural conservative beliefs and standing for them. This made him an awful leader, indeed.

Doug was my love. I literally hugged him I was so enamoured with him. I also felt that, based on his brother's record, he would be reliable ideologically. I have been proven so far pretty wrong about that I am afraid. It had nothing to do with his CV, which I believe to be the weakest of the three areas I am discussing. But, it certainly had to do with character.

Then there was Bernier. He has character, that is, the courage of his convictions, to beat the band. He even has a nice resume. His ideas are spot on and beautifully dissertated in his little PCP memos issue by issue. He certainly seems man enough but a tad exotic for the average voter,  I must say! The real problem with Max and that of the others was an inability to articulate ideas in a way that is persuasive for voters. All the conviction and passion in the World is no good if you cannot find a way to present these ideas in a way that captures a real person's imagination. For e.g.: PCP's billboard focussed on the Border when it should have focussed on the Wallet.

At first face, O'Toole appears to have the "Real Guy" thing downpat. As well, he is no roughneck, well educated and resume'd quite uniquely and interestingly. Finally, at least lately, he makes good ideological noises (although, perhaps tellingly, he endorsed Elliott in the PCO Leader race in 2018). But there needs to be more done to be sure of what he really is.

The process of drilling down for O'Toole then is not just finding out what his convictions really are and his understanding of the mechanics to deliver them, but also his plan to persuade people to follow him to do these significant even bold reforms. The rumour is (which I am desperate to confirm) that, aside from Law and Order, muscular foreign policy and the Pipeline Debate (that is, any debate should only be over when the pipeline gets built not whether), O'Toole seems to have guessed correctly that the really big issue to build a dream on is the Cost of Living. 

Blessed it be if it t'were true! But, even if it is, O'Toole better have a clear idea of how he will solve it (broadly by deregulation and free markets) and show why it needs to be done. For e.g.: simple placards showing how much Canadians pay for everything from milk to airline tickets to cars and how much the average American pays could be a good start. But use trusted and respected economists who are experts in the sectors being reformed to back up your numbers.

There are armies of lobbyists out there paid millions to maintain the status quo for their oligopolistic clients, with tons of friends in politics, government, the media and academia, who spend all of their time working on preserving their client's specific little fiefdom of subsidy and regulated non-competition. You need to be ready to fight back against their campaigns to crush you. You must get the best and the brightest who believe in your agenda to advise you.

You must get your Campaign, then the Party membership, then your Caucus then your Shadow Cabinet, and then the People behind you and make them realize that these issues and other conservative economic ideas can win and only need a very small sliver of support beyond the base to win a majority mandate. But it will be above all about communicating and connecting with all Canadians on these matters. Will this drill down find that O'Toole has anything like the stuff to do all of this?

When we chose Mike Harris PCO Leader in 1990, it was obvious that he was not ideal but the best of the rest. No one could have known then the Mess that he would be one day fated to clean up let alone know he would be the One to do it. There was just something about him. The one rather ambivalent advantage O'Toole will have is he knows in real time exactly the Mess he will one day be called on to clean up if he becomes CPC Leader (unless of course he has been in a coma these last few years). The real question for the Tory voter is...what's the alternative if O'Toole does not have the Right Stuff? Easy answer: another 4 years of Trudeau and all that that entails...