The biggest weakness Trump faces in his otherwise brilliant strategy for re-election - talk up his long record of results, accomplishments, deeds and promises kept - is: what will he do for an encore? Now, in some cases, it is obvious what he will do - continue to appoint conservative judges or build more of the Wall, for example. But what really comes after tax reform, deregulation or the trade deals? Simply more of all of them? Maybe. But, another terrible hole is the fiscal situation. While he did not promise to balance the budget or reform the entitlements that are destroying the American fisc (indeed, his biggest unfulfilled promise is to pass a trillion dollar plus infrastructure bill, and a good thing, too!), it may start to get old, whether or not he recovers control of Congress this year, to blame the Democrats again and/or ignore the danger.
The chief threat is that not taking control of spending will endanger the Boom he has helped to engineer. There are signs already that the momentum and returns from his initial economic and budgetary moves are diminishing or blowing out and this despite upwards of 5% deficits. Thus, first, more stimulative moves to sustain and accelerate growth will be needed but that, in and of itself, will not be enough and may in fact make things worse if there is no reform.
This means even more deregulation, yes. For example, how about getting rid of some Departments or Agencies (but don't ask Gov. Perry to ID them!)? But it should also mean more and more meaningful and wide ranging tax reform. The historical precedent is Reagan bringing in broad tax cuts in his first term but then following up in his second with tax cuts married with a bold simplification of the tax code (he also did both of his tax bills with bipartisan sponsorship, leadership and votes, sadly unlikely for Trump). It should not be enough, just from a fiscally responsible point of view, to simply cut taxes this time. The Tax Code needs to go on a diet, meaning, in return for broadly lower taxes, Americans will need to be weaned off of their addiction to tax breaks. The result will be a more efficient, hardy and vibrant economy and People.
What else needs to be on the new Trump Agenda, phase two? Probably immigration reform that rids the country of lottery and chain immigration. But all roads will likely lead back again to the Budget. Two more things will need to happen desperately if Trump is to prove his legacy can include righting the Nation's finances. First, entitlements will have to be reformed. This should mean that some of them need to be means tested in return for allowing more Americans to save and invest with some tax favour to build their own social safety net. Whether through Health Savings Accounts, Private Social Security instruments and vehicles like Education Saving Plans, the young need to be encouraged and enabled to be more independent as the Fisc strains to help the old and the sick universally with the present programs. The hope is that, once the new generations have gotten used to this approach, there will be more benefits and supports for the the truly and perennially needy and helpless.
Another part of the new agenda that Trump must look at if he is to have a chance of succeeding: the ludicrous 60 vote appropriation requirement in the Senate. The Democrats have shown themselves unwilling, too hostile and downright unfit to break the logjam over this matter just as they have on immigration. But it will not be enough to hold majorities in both Houses of Congress. If just a corporal's guard of the Senate Democrats refuses to go along with any kind of budgetary reform, it is effectively dead and/or the government is "shut down" under the 60 vote rule. Aside from being a shameful and embarrassing disgrace, it is unconstitutional and a threat to the country solving any of its major legislative problems.
Using the excuse that should be readily apparent to McConnell and the Senate Republicans that the rule is being abused, it should be possible to get rid of it and move on. After all, both his predecessor and McConnell did away with a similar "rule" for Supreme Court appointments. It is obvious that this rule is serving no one and paralyzing business and in the end hurts both sides whenever they wish to get anything done. Or McConnell may show his true colours in enjoying the Senate's "imperial" supermajoritarian status as much as the Dems. But the President must try to push his Majority Leader to do something (like actually calling the Dems bluff when they threaten to filibuster) to do better or the budgetary crisis goes on.
There are other things that Trump could add to the things he will continue from his first term. These can and should include, believe it or not, trimming the thousands of tariff and non-tariff barriers that America has that either collect no revenue at all or only protect select businesses with good lobbyists. Here, Trump gets to show that red tape, bureaucracy and taxes are his enemy even when they were originally intended to protect the American worker but in fact only hurt the same person as consumer. Reforming Defense procurement, proving that people like Colonel Vindman are a sign that even the Pentagon can screw up and misspend, is another profitable avenue.
Together with this could be a sort of "Deep State Commission" whose blue ribbon panel's mission would be to ensure that the likes of Lerner, Comey and Strok are evicted from the ranks of America's most sensitive (and not so sensitive) government agencies. Their arrogant belief that the President is a mere interloper on their sacred fiefdoms would be abolished and hopefully forever vanish. This long overdue housecleaning in the name of democratic command, along with depoliticization of these groups, legal probes and prosecutions, is critical in deterring the Republic and the Rule of Law from being abused again. Future presidents and generations of people who believe in democracy not bureaucracy will be grateful.
There are many more "Next Steps" that one can dream up. But does Trump have the passion, imagination and courage needed to bring them forward that he has had for other ideas in the last 4 years? Maybe not. Yet, who would have predicted in 2016 Trump would become as passionate, effective and articulate as he has become about Opportunity Zones, ESP's for School Choice and the Right to Life? At the very least, it may not be enough to simply rest on his laurels to get re-elected. Reagan did it in 1984 and came to regret how it undermined his mandate to act in his second term. If Trump goes in to the election with no new and compelling ideas and proposals such as he brought forward last time, he may come up short to all our loss. Even if Trump makes it, he will have no plan of action to guide and sustain him for the next "Four more years!".
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